Saturday, November 15, 2008

Market Ends A Choppy Trading Session Lower - Nov 15, 2008

Political uncertainty ahead of state elections, uncertainty about a US Treasury plan to forgo buying bad mortgage-related investments to buy stakes in US lenders and caution ahead of a meeting of G20 political leaders, pulled the market lower in what was a choppy trading session.

The BSE 30-share Sensex provisionally lost 127.42 points, or 1.34%, despite expectations of further cut in interest rates triggered by inflation falling to double-digit level.

Volatility was high with Sensex swinging 558.76 points in the day, moving between positive and negative zone. Volatility in US index futures caused volatility on the domestic bourses. Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could slide 128 points at the opening bell. Earlier, there was an intraday recovery in US index futures from an initial fall.

Polling for assembly elections in Chhattisgarh began on Friday, 14 November 2008. Chhattisgarh is the first state out of a total of five states in which polling is being held for assembly elections.

These polls are widely seen as a test of the popularity of the country's main political parties viz. the Congress and the BJP, ahead of national elections in the first half of calendar year 2009.

Meanwhile, softening inflation will enable the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to further cut interest rates to create more liquidity in a slowing economy. Lower interest rates boost stocks as they help rise in corporate bottomline by way of lower borrowing costs. RBI has already signaled an easier rate regime and cut a key short term rate earlier this month along with cuts in bank reserve ratios to free up funds for lending.

European shares raced higher in early trade on Friday, 14 November 2008, snapping a three-day losing streak, as mining shares tracked higher metals prices and banks advanced after recent declines. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were up by between 1.19% and 3.26%.

But Asian stocks pared strong early gains triggered by overnight surge in US stocks. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan were up by between 0.34% and 3.05%. However, South Korea's Seoul Composite was down 0.02% A two-day meeting of G20 political leaders begins in Washington later in the day to discuss ways to protect the global economy from a repeat of the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

US stocks rallied on Thursday, 13 November 2008 after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched new multiyear lows earlier in the session as bargain hunters scooped up beaten-down shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 552.59 points, or 6.67%, to 8,835.25, Standard & Poor's 500 Index shot up 58.97 points, or 6.92%, to 911.27 and Nasdaq Composite index surged 97.49 points, or 6.5% to 1,596.70.

US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson said on Wednesday, 12 November 2008, his department was ditching its plan to purchase troubled assets from banks -- the centerpiece of the government's original $700-billion bailout plan -- in favor of injecting capital directly into financial institutions. Although investors had welcomed the capital infusions, they were disappointed that the government would not be taking billions of dollars in toxic assets off bank balance sheets.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 127.42 points, or 1.34%, to 9,408.91, as per provisional closing. At the day's high of 9,826.25 hit in early trade, the Sensex gained 284.92 points. The Sensex lost 268.84 points at the day's low of 9,267.49 in afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty lost 26.95 points, or 0.88%, to 2,823.45 as per provisional closing The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative with 1587 shares declining on BSE as compared to 936 that rose. A total of 78 shares remained unchanged.

The total turnover on the BSE amounted to Rs 3674 crore as compared to Rs 2703 crore by 14:30 IST Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 20 slipped while the rest gained. ACC (down 8.83% to Rs 419.15), HDFC (down 4.75% to Rs 1560), and Jaiprakash Associates (down 5.06% to Rs 73.20), edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Ranbaxy (up 0.26% to Rs 215), and Tata Power (up 2.51% to Rs 750), edged higher from the Sensex pack.

Auto shares were under pressure on concerns economic downturn may impact sales. India's top truck maker by sales Tata Motors slumped 8.95% to Rs 136.25 on reports the company's Lucknow plant which produces heavy commercial vehicles is likely to be shut for another week.

Mahindra & Mahindra (down 0.65% to Rs 340), and Maruti Suzuki India (down 3.55% to Rs 540), were the other losers from the auto pack.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner, Reliance Industries (RIL), slipped 0.78% to Rs 1153.10 on high volumes of 40.52 lakh shares. The stock swung wildly in range of Rs 1088.65 and Rs 1208. Concerns of weakening refining margins amid sluggish demand for petroleum products weighed on the stock.

Metal shares slipped despite firm metal prices on the London Metal Price (LME). Sterlite Industries (down 3.02% to Rs 229.90), JSW Steel (down 6.02% to Rs 275), Hindustan Zinc (down 3.05% to Rs 365), and Tata Steel (down 5.67% to Rs 174.60), slipped. India's top private sector aluminium maker by sales Hindalco Industries ended unchanged at Rs 56.55 Capital goods shares fell on fears the global slowdown may curtail overseas orders.

The country's largest power equipment maker by sales, Bharat Heavy Electricals, lost 4.88% to Rs 1271.80. India's top engineering and construction firm L&T by sales slipped 5.03% to Rs 786
IT pivotals declined after Intel, the world's biggest maker of PC microprocessors with 80% of the global market, announced a sharp cut in its fourth-quarter guidance, offering further evidence that technology companies are headed for bad times.

Infosys (down 3.26% to Rs 1218.15), Satyam Computer Services (down 0.96% to Rs 262.25), and Wirpo (down 2.65% to Rs 241), slipped. However India's top software services exporter Tata Consultancy Services rose 0.08% to Rs 532, off day's low of Rs 523.25 The Santa Clara-based Intel Corp slashed more than $1 billion from its sales forecast and dialed its profit expectations way back.

Intel blamed a clampdown on spending for reducing demand for its chips. Intel's announcement came after trading hours in India on Wednesday, 12 November 2008.

Telecom pivotals advanced after reversing last two days' losses after Japan's NTT DoCoMo on Wednesday, 12 November 2008, signed an agreement to acquire a 26% stake in unlisted Tata Teleservices (TTL). India's top mobile operator by market capitalisation, Bharti Airtel rose 3.92% to Rs 656 on 8.97 lakh shares and was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.

India's second largest cellular services provider by market capitalisation Reliance Communications gained 3.28% to Rs 223. The deal between NTT DoCoMo and unlisted TTL announced the deal after trading hours on Wednesday, 12 November 2008.

Tata Teleservices Maharashtra (TTML), jumped 12.84% to Rs 20.30 on high volumes of 1.64 crore shares after NTT DoCoMo and Tata Sons announced a 20% open offer for the shareholders of Tata Teleservices Maharashtra (TTML) at Rs 24.70 a share. Tata Sons, the holding company of the Tata Group, holds 20.7% of the capital of TTML. The unlisted TTL owns 37.65% stake of TTML.

Telecom pivotals had succumbed to selling pressure in the past two days on reports new telecom companies planning to enter the Indian market to offer 3G services may have to pay 3% of their aggregate revenues to the government.

Banking shares were mixed amid expectations that lower interest rates will boost lending growth. HDFC Bank (down 0.29% to Rs 1005), and ICICI Bank (down 0.98% to Rs 394) slipped.

However India's top state-run bank in terms of net profit State Bank of India gained 0.38% to Rs 1180, recovering from an intra-day low of Rs 1156.

Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, declined sharply to 8.98% in the week ending 1 November 2008 from 10.72% in the previous week mainly due to sharp drop in oil prices.

The government unveiled the inflation data on Thursday, 13 November 2008, when the stock market was closed for a public holiday.

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