Saturday, March 29, 2008

As Markets Lift, Fundmen Rush To Help Up Navs

Art Buchwald, the late American satirist, famously wrote during the dotcom crisis about how the small guy is always at the receiving end.

Contrasting his plight with the biggies' Buchwald wrote: "Big guys manage other people's money. When prices are falling, they don't feel good about losing OPM. But they don't feel bad enough not to take their family out for dinner over the weekend either."

Quite the scene for fundmen too, whose bonus depends on how high the net asset values of their funds are.

The macro scare of a 59-week high inflation of 6.68% threatening to derail the economy, has thus been given the go-by till March 31.

Thus, institutional buying and an overall improvement in sentiment across Asia lifted the Sensex by 355 points to 16,371, its highest close since the post-Budget slump. FIIs, on the other hand, were sellers by Rs 415 crore.

Ajay Kumar Pandey, who handles the institutional business for Systematix Shares, called Friday's pop 'the March 31 effect'.

"Many mutual funds (MFs) bought aggressively and kept prices up to enable them a good year-end show," he said.

NAV-propping, or window-dressing, takes place when professional investors seek to make their quarterly or annual performance look good to clients and employers.

Year-end shopping by funds is actually an annual feature. Only this year has this started a bit late due to the disturbing and volatile global market conditions.

A DNA Money analysis shows that, in March 21-30, 2006, MFs bought shares worth Rs 1,960 crore, driving the Sensex up 447 points or 4.1%.

In 2007, between March 19 and 30, they net-bought shares worth Rs 404 crore, and the Sensex went up 641 points or 5.2%.

This year, in the Sensex rally of 1020 points over the last four sessions, MFs were net sellers for Rs 419 crore, but on Friday, they swung into positive with a net buy of Rs 729 crore.

Paras Adenwala, CIO, ING MF, said, "Some people might be doing it. But also, one needs to consider the fact that when FIIs are buying, the domestic institutions can't afford to sit on cash. Besides, insurance companies which have raised money are also deploying. Also, when there is this kind of interest, some retail investors also get interested and start deploying;

So it's all four parts of the market participating, that's seeing the stocks go up."

Sameer Kamdar of Mata Securities, an MF distributor, said, "Most funds report earnings in the April-March period, while some funds report in the January-December period. Year-end ramping-up used to be rampant, but has come down these days. Some of them could still be doing it, but for me, it makes no logical sense."

Adenwala of ING MF feels the inflation numbers are not good for the stock market as it effectively rules out a cut in interest rates. "It (inflation) is extremely high. The rise over last week has been steep. It is attributed to the rise in base metal prices. It's going to be a challenging task to reign in inflation, which is flaring due to global commodity prices. It's a negative trend for companies as cost of funds could go up, bringing the net profit margins down."

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