Rupee Rises On Stocks, Outflow Fears Persist

MUMBAI: The rupee climbed on Tuesday, with sentiment bolstered by a rise in local stocks, though concerns over capital outflows amid fears of a slowdown in global growth kept a lid on gains, dealers said.

At 10 am, the partially convertible rupee was at 39.652/662 per dollar, strengthening from the previous close of 39.695/705.

"The Sensex is driving the rupee at the moment," said a dealer with a private bank, referring to India's benchmark share index.

The Sensex rose more than 2 per cent in early deals, after losing nearly 11 per cent in the past four sessions.

Asian shares edged higher on Tuesday but the latest bounce on Wall Street failed to dispel fears about a US recession, while supply worries kept commodity prices high.

Most Asian currencies moved in tight ranges in step with regional stocks.

The mood was still cautious after Reliance Power, which listed its shares on Monday, tumbled by as much as 21 per cent.

The company raised a record $3 billion through an initial share offering last month and the issue generated sizeable foreign interest.

The euro slipped on Tuesday, struggling as traders speculated whether slowing European growth will warrant a European Central Bank interest rate cut in the coming months, even as inflationary pressures persist.

Sensex Signs Off Week On A High, Climbs 594 pts

MUMBAI: There was a glimmer of hope on Dalal Street on Friday as major indices snapped a four-day losing streak, rising around 3% over the previous close.

But with dark clouds of recession still looming over the US economy, it remains to be seen if equity markets globally, India included, will be able to regain their previous highs anytime soon.

The 30-share Sensex ended the day at 1,8242.58, up 593.87 points over the previous close. A dramatic recovery, considering that the bellwether was down 100 points at one stage during the day.

The 50-share Nifty gained 179.80 points to close at 5,317.25.Bulls bought heavily into beaten-down IT and automobile shares in a desperate attempt to bolster overall sentiment.

Infosys, TCS and Satyam rose between 6% and 8% while Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki gained around 7%. While main indices surged, the rally lacked both depth and breadth, exposing the nervous mood among investors. Traded turnover on both exchanges combined was around Rs 62,000 crore, nearly 40% lower than the daily average for the past couple of months. Market breadth was negative with around 60% of the stocks ending lower.

Foreign institutional investors stuck to their bearish view on India, pulling out around Rs 127 crore at the net level on Friday, as per BSE’s provisional figures. Local institutions too were circumspect, net selling around Rs 115 crore worth of shares.

“Fundamentally, we are on a sound footing; the market is only going through a consolidation phase,” said Motilal Oswal, chairman, Motilal Oswal Securities. Once sentiment in world markets improves, India will recover at a faster pace,” he added.

The overall mood in global markets was positive. Key Asian markets ended higher, shrugging off a weak start. European markets, which opened after Indian market, were trading firm. “Indian markets had over-reacted to the global events as compared to other countries,” says Nikhil Thakker, head-research, UTI Securities.

“There is still enough room for upside. The market may enter into a pre-budget rally. Even though volumes were on the lower side, this would pick up as we move ahead,” he added.

Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) moved up to 3.93% for the week ended January 19, 2008 from 3.83% in the previous week. But for the moment, inflation appears to be the least of the worries for investors.

Traded turnover of around Rs 36,000 crore in the derivative segment of NSE was a clear indication of low participation by retail investors.

Another pointer was the slackness in BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices, with both of them closing marginally lower.
Brokers said trading terminals at many firm are still inactive as margin outstandings have not been cleared.