Oilseed output may fall by 13 mln tonnes

PANAJI: Global oilseed output is expected to fall by 13 million tonnes to 391 million tonnes in the year to October 2008 from the year before, a top industry analyst said on Sunday, which may lift edible oil prices.

Oilseed production was likely to fall due to an expected lower crop in China, Australia, Europe and North America, Thomas Mielke, editor of the Oil World publication, told a conference in the Indian tourist state of Goa.

"The prospective decline in world production of 10 oilseeds by around 13 million tonnes is unprecedented," he said.

Mielke said global oilseed output had been rising since 1995/96 when production was 257 million tonnes, until by 2006/07 output was 404 million tonnes.

Trade experts say global edible oil prices, which have been on the boil, will go up further due to forecasts of lower oilseed output.

Palm oil, mostly produced in Malaysia and Indonesia, was at a record high of 2,764 ringgit per tonne in June and rival soyoil touched a 23-year high on the Chicago Board of Trade this year.

The use of palm and soy oils for production of biofuels has been generating a sharp increase in prices globally.

Global palm oil prices may reach 2,600-3,000 ringgit per tonne shortly, while soyoil prices would soon scale up to $900 per tonne and might touch $1,000 per tonne, Dorab Mistry, whose forecasts are closely watched by the industry, said on Sunday.

Mielke said global soybean output was expected to fall by 14 million tonnes to 223.6 million tonnes next year even as demand for soyoil and meal was likely to rise.

High feedgrain prices have pushed up demand for soymeal in Europe, North America and other consuming countries, he said.

"Plus, expanding livestock production is likely to boost world demand for soymeal by almost 10 million tonnes or 6 percent in 2007/08